We Assess the Fed’s Semi-Annual Financial Stability Assessment
05.18.2023 The Federal Reserve released its financial stability report last week, the latest edition of a series […]
Productivity Growth Generates ‘Free Lunch’ for Investors
05.11.2023 Inflation is a current that businesses and individuals are continually swimming against. If you swim faster […]
The Fed’s High-Wire Act Is Almost Over
05.03.2023 Federal Reserve policymakers are meeting today to weigh what is widely expected to be their tenth […]
Bank Turmoil Exposes Commercial Real Estate Vulnerability
04.27.2023 Fourteen years of generously low interest rates ended when 2022 ushered in a new interest rate […]
Ahoy, Investors – Choppy Seas Ahead!
04.12.2023 US large caps have enjoyed a smart rebound so far this year, with the S&P up about […]
Will the OPEC+ Oil Production Cut Fuel Inflation?
04.05.2023 OPEC+ surprised the world over the weekend by announcing a production cut at a time when […]
Bear Stearns/2007 Déjà Vu: Is SVB Early Warning of Systemic Equity Market Selloff?
03.28.2023 The failure of Silicon Valley Bank a few weeks ago is eerily similar to the collapse […]
One More, Then Done
03.23.2023 Wednesday afternoon, Chairman Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the overnight rate by […]
Is Credit Suisse Another Bank Domino About to Fall?
03.15.2023 As we approach the one-year anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s first move in its latest rate-hiking […]
The Perils of Skinny Dipping at Ebb Tide
03.14.2023 The combination of higher interest rates and an inverted yield curve represents an ebbing tide for […]
Where’s the Recession?
03.08.2023 “Animal spirits” sounds like something one might find on the cocktail list at a posh safari […]
How Long Can Treasury Sustain its Budgetary High-Wire Act?
03.01.23 Last month, the US bumped up against its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, prompting the Treasury Department […]
What Should the ‘New Normal’ Level for the 10-Year Treasury Be?
02.22.2023 Economic data plots from the last few years look like electrocardiographs. The pandemic-induced lockdowns of 2020 […]
Why the Theories of Sir Isaac Newton Matter to Investing
02.15.2023 To paraphrase Newton’s First Law of Motion, “A body in motion will remain in motion unless […]
Fed Impatience and the Ghost of Volcker
02.07.2023 In his quest for credibility, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been beating a hawkish drum. […]
Reading the Earnings Tea Leaves
02.02.2023 We’re in the busiest week of earnings season, looking out toward a year of uncertainty. If […]