Cresset’s Moneyball Report 2025

By Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer and Founding Partner

It’s that time of year again: Major League Baseball’s All-Star break, a time when investors trade their quote screens for sunscreen, abandon their order books for bestsellers and leave their mobile phones charging on their bedside tables. The All-Star break is also a time when we at Cresset ask the eternal question: Can money buy a winning ball club? Without salary caps and league parity, Major League Baseball (MLB) is the professional sport most closely resembling a free market where, in theory, you get what you pay for. Of course, in reality that’s rarely the case – and that’s why we love writing about it.

Two significant rule changes were enacted this year to help boost offense. The first is a much harsher penalty for violating the infield shift ban. If a team positions its infielders illegally (in other words, not having two infielders on each side of second base), the batter is automatically awarded first base, and all runners advance one base. The violating fielder is charged with an error, and the batter does not receive a plate appearance. Previously, the penalty was only an automatic ball or accepting the play’s result. 

The other change is an expansion of the replay review for base running. A replay review can now be used to determine if a runner has overrun second or third base and can call the runner out for abandonment, even if that was not the original subject of the review. This change addresses rare but controversial base-running plays, aiming to clarify outcomes and speed up reviews.

Additionally, MLB continued experimenting with the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) during spring training, but it is not yet a regular season rule. ABS disadvantages the home team, since umpires tend to cut more slack for home batters versus visitors. 

MLB team payrolls rose about four percent from last year to over $5 billion. Several factors drove the increase. The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers led payroll growth, each eclipsing $320 million primarily due to massive long-term contracts for star free agents and for retaining high-value veterans. The Yankees and Phillies also maintained payrolls near the top of the league, reflecting their continued investment in top talent.

Teams like the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks boosted payrolls by acquiring expensive stars via trade, while others, such as the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Guardians, shed salary by trading high-priced veterans and focusing on younger, cost-controlled players. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins and the Oakland Athletics slashed payrolls dramatically, with the Marlins’ payroll dropping by over 40 per cent in one year as they leaned on league-minimum contracts.

American League

The Toronto Blue Jays solidified their lineup with Vladimir Guerrero Jr at first base, while the Detroit Tigers made significant moves, resulting in second baseman Gleyber Torres, and outfielders Riley Greene, and Javier Báez, all earning All-Star starting spots, signaling a major shift in their roster and competitiveness.

The Baltimore Orioles’ lineup was shaken up with Ryan O’Hearn stepping in as the All-Star designated hitter, while the Seattle Mariners’ Cal Raleigh emerged as the starting catcher. The Cleveland Guardians maintained stability with José Ramírez at third base, but other teams, like the Yankees, continued to rely on established stars such as Aaron Judge in the outfield.

Our regression model for the American League is upwardly sloping, suggesting that winning percentage and payrolls are positively linked, with the big-spending New York Yankees defining the line. Meanwhile, the intercept suggests a .430 winning percentage if you spent nothing, although Oakland and the White Sox wish they had .430 records this season.

Winners

The Detroit Tigers are dominating 2025 with the best record in the American League at 36-20 and first place in the AL Central at 50-30. Their success stems from reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, who won unanimously after earning the Triple Crown in 2024. Riley Greene and Javier Báez are both All-Star starters, with Greene hitting .296 with 19 home runs and 63 RBIs. The Tigers have gone 67-33 over their last 100 games since August 2024, showcasing remarkable consistency. Their blend of elite pitching, offensive depth, and strong management under AJ Hinch has transformed them into legitimate World Series contenders. Detroit is turning into a major sports city with the Lions added to the picture. 

The Tampa Bay Rays are having a solid 2025 season. They’re 47-38 and in second place in the AL East, which is competitive but not dominant. The team has faced significant challenges, including playing their home games at George M Steinbrenner Field due to Hurricane Milton damaging Tropicana Field. The team’s average attendance is under 10,000, putting it second to last, just above the hapless Oakland Athletics. Their success comes from a deep, balanced pitching staff with experienced starters like Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, and Shane Baz, though ace Shane McClanahan began the season on the injured list with a triceps injury. The Rays’ traditional strengths of pitching development, bullpen depth, and organizational efficiency remain intact, keeping them competitive in the tough AL East despite roster limitations.

The Houston Astros are a competitive franchise, and 2025 is no different with a 52-34 record and first place in the AL West. After losing key players Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and Alex Bregman to free agency, many predicted decline. However, new acquisitions Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have filled crucial roles, while Lance McCullers Jr returned after a 915-day absence from an injury requiring elbow surgery. The team’s 19-7 record in June was MLB’s best, and they overcame a slow start during which they were two games below .500 multiple times. The Astros are a solid team despite roster turnover, with their pitching depth and favorable AL West competition positioning them for another division title.

Losers

The Chicago White Sox are struggling badly in 2025 with a 25-55 record, placing them fifth in the AL Central. Their poor performance stems from being in the depths of a rebuild after setting the modern MLB record with 121 losses in 2024. The team traded away star pitcher Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox for prospects and has one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, spending only $13.45 million on five free agents. They’ve been decimated by injuries, including six different pitchers requiring Tommy John surgery this spring. With first-year manager Will Venable leading a roster of developing prospects and journeymen, the White Sox are giving priority to long-term organizational health over short-term wins, making them uncompetitive while they rebuild their farm system. There simply aren’t enough Kosher hot dogs and Cracker Jacks to get me out to Rate Field this year.

The Texas Rangers are struggling in 2025, performing worse than expected after coming off their 2023 World Series championship. They remain under .500 and are second to last in MLB with only 3.18 runs per game. The team has been one of the most disappointing teams in MLB thus far, with their offense ranking near the bottom of baseball. Despite having a pitching rotation that ranks first in the majors in ERA, a struggling offense has undermined their success. The Rangers have made drastic changes, including demoting Jake Burger to the minors and dismissing Offensive Coordinator Donnie Ecker after the team struggled offensively throughout the first month. Established players have regressed significantly, with their projected runs per game dropping from 4.86 to 4.57, costing them approximately five wins and leaving them hovering around .500 despite championship expectations.

The Oakland Athletics are struggling in 2025 due to the massive disruption caused by their relocation from Oakland to West Sacramento. This is the franchise’s first year in West Sacramento, playing at Sutter Health Park, a minor-league facility with only 14,000 seats compared to Oakland’s 63,000-seat Coliseum. The organization laid off as much as half of their non-baseball operations employees during the transition. The team continues their pattern of poor performance, having finished 69-93 in 2024, fourth in the AL West. Playing in extreme Sacramento Valley heat on turf surfaces, sharing a ballpark with the River Cats, and dealing with organizational chaos while awaiting their eventual move to Las Vegas in 2028 has created an unstable environment that’s undermining their competitiveness.

National League

During the off season the National League saw several blockbuster trades and high-profile player moves that reshaped team rosters and the league’s competitive landscape. The San Francisco Giants pulled off the most headline-grabbing deal by acquiring All-Star third baseman Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox. In exchange, Boston received a package led by Jordan Hicks and top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison. This early season trade was unexpected and signaled the Giants’ aggressive pursuit of a playoff run, while the Red Sox began a significant roster retooling.

The New York Mets made history by signing Juan Soto to a record 15-year, $765 million contract, the largest in professional sports. While technically a free agent signing, this move had a trade-like impact on the NL’s power structure, instantly making the Mets a top contender.

The Chicago Cubs traded for All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros, sending Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston. The deal was designed to boost the Cubs’ offense and playoff hopes (fingers crossed). 

Our National League regression is positively sloped, reflecting performance gravitating to big-spending teams. The New York Mets have surpassed the LA Dodgers for spending, although their performance, even at .565, is coming up below statistical expectations. 

Winners

This year the Milwaukee Brewers are, as usual, exceeding expectations, despite losing key players like Willy Adames and Devin Williams. They are meeting my preseason prediction to remain competitive for the umpteenth consecutive year after seemingly losing more talent than they gained in the off season. Manager Pat Murphy is in his second year after dramatically exceeding expectations last year. Rising star Jackson Chourio has elevated his confidence to become the youngest player in MLB history to achieve a 20-20 season at age 20. The Brewers continue their organizational excellence in player development, maintaining their small-market approach with strategic spending and strong internal infrastructure. The Brew Crew is tough. 

The Chicago Cubs are exceeding expectations in 2025, after spending a sad series of years punching below their weight, with a 46-31 record and first place in the NL Central. After consecutive 83-79 seasons, they’re on track to win more than 100 games in 2025. Their explosive offense leads MLB with 5.78 runs per game, powered by the incredible duo of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who became the first MLB teammates since 1922 to each enter July with at least 30 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases. Both were named All-Star Game starters, marking the first time Cubs outfielders have started together since 1936. The Cubs have five hitters with at least 100 plate appearances delivering 40 per cent more runs than the average batter, creating unprecedented offensive depth that has transformed them into legitimate World Series contenders. Fingers crossed for the Cubbies. 

The Cincinnati Reds are punching above their weight in 2025 with a 44-41 record under new manager Terry Francona, who replaced David Bell. Preseason projections had them finishing last in the NL Central with just a 1.5 per cent chance of winning the division. The team was projected to win only 73-77 games, but they’re currently on pace to exceed those expectations. Francona’s veteran leadership and championship pedigree are helping drive their results. Also, the return of healthy players like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are a plus, and the continued development of superstar Elly De La Cruz is promising. The improved pitching depth with additions like Brady Singer and better bullpen management have also contributed. While still rebuilding, the Reds’ young core is maturing faster than anticipated, putting them in contention for a wild card spot despite modest offseason spending.

Losers

The Colorado Rockies’ 2025 season has been an epic fail: they are on pace to lose 130+ games and surpass the Chicago White Sox as the worst modern MLB team. At 9-50 through their first 59 games, they’ve already set the record for fastest to 50 losses. Their struggles are manifold. At 3.2 runs per game, they’re scoring the fewest runs in baseball despite playing at hitter-friendly Coors Field, while allowing the most runs per game. The pitching staff has been decimated by injuries, with starters like Kyle Freeland (0-8) and Germán Márquez (1-7) posting ERAs over 5.80. The Rockies have committed the most errors in MLB and have lost 22 consecutive series. The franchise’s outdated front office approach, lack of organizational depth, and injuries to key players like Kris Bryant have mired the Rockies in a perfect storm of incompetence.

The Atlanta Braves are also struggling this year, with a disappointing 38-45 record, sitting third in the NL East and seven games under .500. After championship aspirations entering the season, they’ve been mediocre for 12 months straight, going 84-84 since last June. They were once MLB’s most aggressive and powerful offense but are now a mediocre mess. Despite having championship-caliber talent, they’ve failed to perform in clutch situations, posting lackluster hitting stats. Key injuries, including Chris Sale being moved to the 60-day injured list, have compounded their problems. Starting 0-7 (their worst start since 2016) and struggling with a 15-28 road record, the Braves have undermined their own talent and face an uphill battle to reach the playoffs.

The Washington Nationals are under-delivering this year due to a caustic combination of poor veteran production, lack of roster depth, underwhelming pitching acquisitions, and leadership issues. Veteran slugger Josh Bell, signed to stabilize the lineup, has become one of the league’s least productive hitters, severely hampering the offense. Offseason pitching additions like Michael Soroka and relievers Poche and Sims have struggled, posting high ERAs and failing to provide reliable innings. The team also lacks experienced clubhouse leadership and has not invested in a proven veteran presence, leaving their young core without guidance. These factors, combined with ongoing bullpen and depth problems, will likely keep the hapless Nationals at the bottom of the NL East.