In this market update, Jack Ablin and Doug Regan unpack the shifting drivers of economic growth, the Fed’s balancing act, and how investors should navigate opportunities amid uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- From Consumers to Companies: While household spending is moderating, Jack highlighted a clear pivot toward business investment. Non-residential capital expenditures are becoming a bigger force behind growth, offsetting signs of consumer fatigue.
- Fed Under Pressure: Doug emphasized that the Federal Reserve remains in a delicate position. Inflation is easing but not gone, and policy decisions must balance slowing consumption against stronger business activity. Rate cuts remain on the table, but clarity is still months away.
- AI and Productivity Tailwinds: Both speakers underscored the transformative impact of AI. Beyond the headlines, Jack noted that productivity gains are beginning to filter into business spending decisions, a trend he expects to accelerate.
- Resilient but Uneven Growth: Doug pointed to retail sales and industrial production holding up, while housing remains a weak spot. Jack added that trade frictions and tariffs have not derailed the broader economy as some feared, though risks remain.
- Positioning Ahead: With late-cycle dynamics taking hold, Jack advised focusing on quality allocations and balancing short-term caution with readiness to capitalize on dislocations. Doug echoed the importance of discipline while recognizing that innovation and business investment may fuel the next leg of growth.
Watch the replay for insights on the Fed’s policy outlook, the shift from consumer to business-led growth, and how Cresset is positioning portfolios in today’s evolving landscape.
