Recorded on November 19, 2025.
In this Market Update, Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Strategist, and Mike Silverman, Chief Investment Officer, joined host Doug Regan to unpack the recent pullback across risk assets, a cloudy Fed path, and what a split consumer means for portfolios. They highlighted how data gaps, policy uncertainty, and narrow market leadership are shaping positioning into year-end while credit conditions and fundamentals remain broadly supportive.
- Volatility and valuation: Most major equity markets fell in November while gold held up. Valuations sit toward the high end of recent ranges, led by large caps. The team views the weakness as primarily technical rather than cyclical or systemic, with economic underpinnings and the credit system still sound.
- Fed uncertainty: A “data desert” after the shutdown and mixed Fed rhetoric reduced the market’s odds of a December rate cut. With officials divided and growth moderating, the path of least resistance is to hold rates steady, keeping policy data dependent into year-end.
- Consumer split and sentiment: Confidence remains fragile, with inflation still felt at the checkout even as the rate of increase cools. Delinquencies on credit cards and autos are ticking up but remain far below recessionary levels. Higher-income households continue to drive discretionary spending and luxury travel, while affordability pressures weigh on lower-income consumers. Larger tax refunds next spring could provide a temporary spending boost.
- Liquidity and fixed income: Financial conditions look easy outside of mortgages. Credit spreads remain contained and financing access is healthy across public and private markets. In bonds, real yields are most compelling just beyond the 10-year area, creating opportunities in intermediate-to-long investment grade and municipal exposures.
- Market structure and positioning: Leadership is narrow with mega caps dominating index returns and many S&P 500 names well below recent highs. Retail dip-buying persists while institutional investors rebalance. If rate-cut odds rise, market breadth could improve in favor of equal-weight and quality cyclicals; if not, high-quality mega caps may continue to lead. Pacing allocations and favoring quality and income remain prudent.
